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Home › Bull Market Peak Indicators › Global M2 vs Bitcoin

Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin

Global M2 (US + Eurozone + China + Japan, in US dollars) against the Bitcoin price, with the money-supply line shifted forward 0, 10 or 12 weeks.

M2 through Feb 2026
BTC priceGlobal M2 (+10 weeks)
Lag

Bitcoin weekly close (left, log scale) vs the sum of US, Eurozone, China and Japan M2 in US dollars (right). The lag buttons shift the M2 line forward — a 10-week lead is the setting most analysts quote.

Global M2
$100.9T
Feb 2026 · US + EZ + CN + JP · record high
M2 growth YoY
+11.8%
+4.4% over 3 months
Bitcoin YoY
-20.6%
month-end close, same month · $66,937
36-month correlation
-0.05
YoY M2 (lagged 10 weeks) vs YoY BTC

Global M2 growth vs Bitcoin — year over year

BTC YoYGlobal M2 YoY (+10 weeks)
Lag

Year-over-year change of Global M2 in US dollars (right) vs Bitcoin's year-over-year return at month-end (left). Direction of M2 growth has tracked Bitcoin better than its level.

M2 by regionLatest month published by each source · converted at month-end FX
RegionM2 (local)In USDYoY (local)ShareData through
United StatesM2 (seasonally adjusted)$23.2T$23.2T+5.4%22.4%Jul 2026
EurozoneM2 stocks€16.4T$18.9T+4.4%19.0%Jul 2026
ChinaM2 (money + quasi-money)CN¥349T$50.9T+9.0%50.5%Feb 2026
JapanM2 (average outstanding)¥1300T$8.2T+2.2%8.1%Jul 2026

How Global M2 is calculated

Global M2 on this page is the sum of the M2 money supply of the four largest monetary areas — the United States, the Eurozone, China and Japan — each converted to US dollars at the month-end exchange rate. Together they account for roughly three quarters of the world's broad money, which is the standard proxy used by most "global liquidity" charts.

Each region's M2 is taken from its own statistical source in local currency: US M2 (seasonally adjusted) from the Federal Reserve, Eurozone M2 stocks from the ECB, China M2 from the National Bureau of Statistics (extended back with IMF monetary-survey data) and Japan M2 from the Bank of Japan. Exchange rates are the Federal Reserve H.10 series. Latest weights: United States 22.4%, Eurozone 19%, China 50.5%, Japan 8.1%.

Money supply is a monthly statistic released four to eight weeks after month-end, so the global series always ends one or two months before today. The Bitcoin line is the weekly close and runs to the current day.

The lag buttons shift the M2 line to the right by 0, 10 or 12 weeks. A 10-week lead is the most quoted setting because changes in liquidity take time to reach risk assets; shifting the line forward lets you compare today's Bitcoin price with the M2 change that happened roughly two to three months earlier.

  • United States — M2 (seasonally adjusted) · Federal Reserve
  • Eurozone — M2 stocks · ECB
  • China — M2 (money + quasi-money) · PBoC / NBS · monthly release, mirror data through Feb 2026
  • Japan — M2 (average outstanding) · Bank of Japan

What it signals

Rising global M2 means central banks and commercial banks are creating money faster than the economy absorbs it; part of that liquidity flows into scarce assets. Bitcoin's three big bull markets (2013, 2017, 2020-21) all coincided with accelerating global M2 growth, and the 2022 bear market coincided with the first year-over-year contraction of dollar-denominated global M2 since 2015.

The year-over-year chart is the cleaner comparison: the direction of M2 growth (accelerating or decelerating) has tracked Bitcoin's yearly return better than the level of M2 itself. When M2 growth turns down while Bitcoin is still rising, the divergence has usually been resolved by price, not by M2.

Because the series is measured in dollars, a stronger dollar shrinks the euro, yuan and yen components even if local money supply is flat — a large part of the 2022 decline was the dollar's rally, not tightening in local terms.

Limitations

  • Four regions, not the whole world: the UK, Canada, Korea, India and others are excluded, so the level understates true global money supply by roughly a fifth.
  • China's monthly release is mirrored with a delay; the most recent months use the NBS series and the history is the IMF monetary survey rescaled to it, which introduces a small step at the join.
  • Japan's M2 level after early 2017 is reconstructed from the Bank of Japan's published year-over-year growth rates, because the BoJ level series is not available as an open download.
  • Correlation is not causation: both M2 and Bitcoin trend upward over long periods, which inflates any level correlation. Use the YoY view for a fair comparison.

Frequently asked questions

What is global M2 money supply right now?

Global M2 — the combined M2 of the United States, Eurozone, China and Japan in US dollars — is $100.9T as of Feb 2026, +11.8% compared with a year earlier. The US alone accounts for $23.2T. The figure is updated weekly as each central bank publishes its monthly release.

Why is Bitcoin compared with M2 using a 10-week lag?

New liquidity takes time to move from bank balance sheets into risk assets, and money-supply data itself is published with a delay. Analysts found that shifting the M2 line forward by roughly 10 weeks (about 70 days) lines up its turning points with Bitcoin's better than a same-day comparison. Twelve weeks is a common alternative; the buttons above the chart let you test all three.

Does global M2 actually predict the Bitcoin price?

Only loosely. Over the last three years the correlation between year-over-year M2 growth (lagged two months) and Bitcoin's year-over-year return is -0.05, versus -0.32 with no lag. Liquidity sets the backdrop — Bitcoin has never had a sustained bull market while dollar-denominated global M2 was contracting — but halving cycles, ETF flows and leverage explain most of the month-to-month moves.

Which countries are included in the global M2 figure?

The United States (Federal Reserve M2), the Eurozone (ECB M2), China (NBS M2) and Japan (Bank of Japan M2). These four monetary areas make up roughly three quarters of the world's broad money. Smaller economies are excluded so that every component is an M2-type aggregate with a long, consistent history.

Why does global M2 fall when the dollar strengthens?

Because the total is measured in US dollars. When the dollar rises against the euro, yuan and yen, the same amount of local-currency money supply converts to fewer dollars. That is why dollar-denominated global M2 contracted in 2022 even though Chinese and Japanese M2 kept growing in local terms.

How often is this chart updated?

Weekly. US M2 is released around the fourth week of the following month, Eurozone M2 at the end of the following month, Japan around the 10th and China around the 12th. Each weekly refresh picks up whatever has been published, and Bitcoin's weekly close is updated daily.

Coinfuty builds the Global M2 series from central-bank and statistics-office data (Federal Reserve, ECB, NBS/IMF, Bank of Japan) converted to US dollars at month-end exchange rates, and refreshes it weekly. Money-supply data is published with a one-to-two-month delay and is revised; nothing here is investment advice.

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