21 cycle-top signals in one dashboard — classic price models (Pi Cycle, Rainbow, Mayer, Puell, Power Law…) plus derivatives and ETF-flow signals that only Coinfuty tracks. Each signal has a public threshold; the count of signals hit rises as the market approaches a cycle peak.
0 of 21 peak signals are currently triggered with BTC at $82,198. The signal closest to its threshold is Altcoin Season Index at 93.3% of the way there. Historically, cycle tops in 2013, 2017 and 2021 saw the majority of price-model signals fire within the same 4–8 week window.
| Signal | Current | Threshold | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price modelsComputed from BTC daily close — 11 signals | ||||
| Pi Cycle Top (SMA111 / 2×SMA350)$72,649 vs $153,916 | 0.47× | ≥ 1× | 47.2% | Not hit |
| Puell MultipleIssuance $37.0M/day | 1.05× | ≥ 2.2× | 47.7% | Not hit |
| Rainbow Chart band (1–9)Band 1/9 | 1 | ≥ 8 | 12.5% | Not hit |
| 2-Year MA Multiplier (price / SMA730)$82,198 vs ×5 $445,514 | 0.92× | ≥ 5× | 18.5% | Not hit |
| Mayer MultipleSMA200 $72,368 | 1.14× | ≥ 2.4× | 47.3% | Not hit |
| AHR999 IndexDCA200 $71,924 | 0.52 | ≥ 4 | 13% | Not hit |
| Price / 200-Week MA200W MA $66,638 | 1.23× | ≥ 3× | 41.1% | Not hit |
| Price / S2F model priceModel $1,641,679 | 0.05× | ≥ 1× | 5% | Not hit |
| Golden Ratio (price / SMA350)SMA350 $76,958 | 1.07× | ≥ 3× | 35.6% | Not hit |
| Profitable days≈ 100% means price is at or near its all-time high | 92.2% | ≥ 99.5% | 92.7% | Not hit |
| Price vs Power Law ceilingCeiling $292,349 | 28.1% | ≥ 80% | 35.2% | Not hit |
| Derivatives — Coinfuty exclusiveFutures OI, funding, liquidations, positioning — 5 signals | ||||
| BTC futures OI / market capOI $40.7B / mcap $1,652B | 2.5% | ≥ 4% | 61.6% | Not hit |
| Funding OI-weighted 30d z-scoremean30 0.0036% vs mean1y 0.0029% | 0.17σ | ≥ 2σ | 8.5% | Not hit |
| Liquidations 30d / OILiq 30d $3.21B | 7.9% | ≥ 15% | 52.6% | Not hit |
| Long/Short ratio 24hLong 50.0% | 1.00× | ≥ 1.3× | 77% | Not hit |
| RSI 22-day (daily close)Wilder RSI, 22-day, on daily BTC close | 52.69 | ≥ 80 | 65.9% | Not hit |
| Flows & breadthETF flows, dominance, altseason, sentiment — 5 signals | ||||
| Altcoin Season Index35/50 beat BTC 90d | 70 | ≥ 75 | 93.3% | Not hit |
| BTC dominance (Coinfuty universe)BTC $1,651B / Σ $2,556B | 64.6% | ≤ 40% | 61.9% | Not hit |
| Spot ETF consecutive net-outflow daysLast flow $+5.1M | 0 days | ≥ 10 days | 0% | Not hit |
| Spot ETF net assets / BTC market capETF $149.3B | 9.0% | ≥ 10% | 90.4% | Not hit |
| Fear & Greed IndexNeutral | 51 | ≥ 90 | 56.7% | Not hit |
Thresholds follow the levels most widely used for each indicator (e.g. Pi Cycle cross, Puell ≥ 2.2, Mayer ≥ 2.4, AHR999 ≥ 4, 2-Year MA ×5). Derivatives and breadth thresholds are Coinfuty’s own, calibrated on the 2021 and 2025 tops.
Counted from the same daily series used on each indicator page, one point per week. The 11 price models run from 2010; long/short from 2019, open interest, funding and liquidations from 2020, altseason from 2023, ETF flows from 2024, sentiment and dominance from 2026 — so the denominator grows from 11 to 21 over time. Peak count per cycle: 2013 top 9 · 2017 top 12 · 2021 top 8 · 2024–25 2.
Peak indicators are heuristics that flagged previous Bitcoin cycle tops. Most of them compare price to a slow-moving anchor — a long moving average, a regression on Bitcoin's age, or its own issuance — and fire when price stretches an unusual distance above that anchor. No single indicator is reliable on its own; the value of a dashboard is the count: in 2013, 2017 and 2021 most price-model signals fired within weeks of each other.
How Coinfuty differs. Besides the classic price models, we add five signals from our futures dataset — open interest relative to market cap, an OI-weighted funding z-score, 30-day liquidations relative to OI, extreme long/short positioning and a 22-day RSI — and five breadth signals (ETF flows, dominance, altseason, sentiment). We do not include UTXO-based metrics such as MVRV, NUPL or Reserve Risk, which need blockchain-level data.
0 of 21 signals are triggered as of Oct 16, 2026. The signal closest to its threshold is Altcoin Season Index at 93.3% of the way there.
Counting every signal that had data at the time: 2013 top — 9; 2017 top — 12; 2021 top — 8; 2024–25 — 2. The 11 price models cover all cycles; derivatives signals start in 2019–2020 and ETF, altseason, sentiment and dominance signals later, so the maximum possible count rises from 11 to 21.
No. They describe how stretched the market is versus long-term anchors. A high count has coincided with tops historically, but indicators can stay triggered for weeks and thresholds are calibrated on only three or four cycles.
The CBBI indicator blends nine metrics — several of them on-chain, such as MVRV, RHODL and Reserve Risk — into one 0–100 confidence score. Coinfuty's dashboard keeps every signal separate with its own threshold and chart, uses no UTXO data, and adds futures and ETF-flow signals the CBBI does not have; the count of signals hit plays the role the CBBI score does.
Those require UTXO-level on-chain data. Coinfuty computes everything from price, its own futures dataset and public constants, so every series is reproducible and can be extended to other coins later.
Nightly at 00:20 UTC with the previous day's close; the current day is patched hourly. Derivatives and breadth signals are daily series computed from Coinfuty's own futures, ETF and market data, each with its own page and chart.
Coinfuty computes every series on this page from daily BTC close prices and public constants — the Bitcoin halving schedule, block subsidy and published regression coefficients. Values refresh nightly (00:20 UTC) and the current day is patched hourly. These are historical, backward-looking indicators; nothing here is investment advice.