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Cryptocurrency derivatives trading involves substantial risk. All data on Coinfuty is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Bitcoin Cascade Simulator

Estimated liquidations for a chosen price move, built from live open interest, recent price action and taker flow — the same transparent leverage model as the liquidation heatmap, fitted per coin against realized liquidations. Model estimates, not exchange-published figures.
Coin
▾
Leverage model
Estimated liquidations per 1% price stepEach bar = notional that gets force-closed inside that 1% band.Longs (price down)Shorts (price up)
0$30M$60M$90Mspot $64,137.2−30%−25%−20%−15%−10%−5%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%
Price now $64,137.2→$60,930.34(−5%)
−30%−15%0%+15%+30%
A 5% drop in Bitcoin to $60,930.34 would trigger an estimated $379M of long liquidations — 1.0% of all BTC open interest, with the heaviest band between −3% and −4%. (Coinfuty Cascade Simulator, 18 Aug 2026)
If BTC drops 5%
$379M
of estimated long liquidations
By exchange at −5%Where the pain lands — driven by each exchange's open interest, its own long/short split, and how much of that book is brand new (24h OI change sits at recent prices).
ExchangeEst. long liquidations% of its OIOpen interest
BBinance$94M1.0%$9.35B
BBybit$47M1.0%$4.65B
GGate$44M1.0%$4.43B
MMEXC$40M1.0%$4.08B
HHyperliquid$28M1.0%$2.69B
OOKX$26M1.0%$2.63B
HHTX$21M1.0%$2.01B
BBitget$18M0.9%$1.99B
KKuCoin$16M1.0%$1.67B
WWhiteBIT$14M1.0%$1.34B
BBingX$8M1.0%$800M
CCrypto.com$7M1.0%$730M
BBitfinex$5M0.9%$570M
AAster$4M1.0%$404M
LLighter$2M1.0%$250M
KKraken$2M1.1%$164M
CCoinbase$1M1.0%$136M
BBitmex$533K1.2%$46M
Total$379M1.0%$37.94B

About the cascade simulator

The cascade simulator answers one question: if the price of a coin moved X% right now, how much leveraged money would be forcibly closed? Pick a coin, drag the shock slider anywhere between −30% and +30%, and the simulator sums every estimated liquidation level sitting between the current price and your target — in total, per exchange, and per 1% price step.

The levels come from the same transparent leverage model that powers the Coinfuty liquidation heatmap: each exchange's open interest is split into longs and shorts, spread across recent entry prices, and broken into leverage tiers with a liquidation price for every tier. The raw map is then fitted to reality — density right next to spot is damped, because those levels have been swept over and over, and the whole map is scaled until the model reproduces the liquidations exchanges actually printed over the same window.

Every figure is an estimate, not a ledger. Exchanges publish liquidation prints, not position books, so nobody outside an exchange knows where every stop sits. The simulator is also first-order only: it measures how much leverage sits inside a move, not how far the resulting cascade would push the price. Treat it as a way to size risk, not as a trade signal.

Frequently asked questions

What is a liquidation cascade?

A liquidation cascade is a chain reaction in leveraged markets: a price move forces some positions to be liquidated, the forced selling or buying pushes price further, and that triggers the next layer of liquidations. Cascades are why crypto moves often accelerate once they reach zones dense with leveraged positions.

How does the cascade simulator estimate liquidations?

It maps each exchange's open interest to estimated liquidation prices using transparent leverage tiers, drops levels the price has already crossed, then calibrates the map against the liquidations exchanges actually printed over the same window. Moving the slider simply sums every surviving level between the current price and your target price.

Are these real pending liquidation orders?

No. Exchanges publish liquidation events after they happen, not the liquidation prices of open positions, so no tool can display real pending liquidations. These are model estimates anchored to live open interest and calibrated against realized liquidations.

Why does the total barely change when I switch the leverage model?

Because every model is re-fitted to the same realized liquidations, the headline total stays anchored to what actually happens in this market. Switching between conservative, balanced and aggressive mainly changes where the liquidation bands sit — closer to or further from the current price — not how much money is at risk overall.

Does the simulator account for the knock-on effect of a cascade?

No — it is first-order by design. It answers how much leverage sits inside a given move, not how far the forced selling would push the price afterwards. Treat a large number as fuel that exists along the path, not as a prediction that the path gets travelled.

Go deeper

  • Live liquidation heatmap — where the estimated levels sit
  • Why do liquidation cascades happen? — Insights article
  • What is a crypto liquidation? — Learn guide