Bitcoin 4 year cycle chart: every halving cycle overlaid from day 0, price indexed to 100 at the halving, so you can compare where the current cycle sits against 2012, 2016 and 2020. Second tab: every calendar year overlaid for seasonality.
X axis is days after the halving, not calendar time. Price indexed to 100 at each halving, log scale.
| Cycle | Halving | Price at halving | Cycle top | Top date | Days to top | Top gain | Length |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle 1 | Nov 28, 2012 | $12.38 | $1,151 | Dec 4, 2013 | 371 | +9201% | 1318 days |
| Cycle 2 | Jul 9, 2016 | $651 | $19,497 | Dec 16, 2017 | 525 | +2895% | 1401 days |
| Cycle 3 | May 11, 2020 | $8,561 | $67,607 | Nov 8, 2021 | 546 | +690% | 1439 days |
| Cycle 4current | Apr 20, 2024 | $64,897 | $124,629 | Oct 6, 2025 (so far) | 534 | +92% | 912 days so far |
Cycle 3 later set a higher close on Mar 13, 2024 (day 1402, +754%), after the two-year window.
index = 100 × close / close at the halving
Bitcoin's block subsidy halves roughly every four years (2012: 25 BTC · 2016: 12.5 BTC · 2020: 6.25 BTC · 2024: 3.125 BTC). Each line on the chart starts at the halving date, with price rebased to 100, and runs until the next halving. Because the lines share a "days after halving" axis rather than calendar dates, you can compare the shape of each cycle directly.
The "cycle top" in the table is the highest close within the first two years after each halving — the window in which every classic top has occurred. Cycle 3 also set a higher close in March 2024, weeks before the next halving; it is listed separately so the classic November 2021 top stays comparable.
The first three cycles peaked roughly 12–18 months after their halving, and the size of each peak has shrunk. Whether the pattern holds with ETF flows and a larger market is the open question every cycle.
Day 912 after the April 2024 halving, +27.2% from the halving price. In the previous 3 cycles the top came between day 371 and day 546.
Around Apr 15, 2028, about 544 days away on the fixed schedule, when block 1,050,000 is mined and the subsidy drops from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. The countdown card refines the date from the live block height.
Three completed cycles is a small sample. Each peak has been smaller and later, and 2024 saw a new all-time high before the halving for the first time. Use the chart as context, not a timetable.
Absolute prices differ by orders of magnitude between cycles; rebasing to 100 at the halving lets you compare percentage paths on one log axis.
Coinfuty computes every series on this page from daily BTC close prices and public constants — the Bitcoin halving schedule, block subsidy and published regression coefficients. Values refresh nightly (00:20 UTC) and the current day is patched hourly. These are historical, backward-looking indicators; nothing here is investment advice.
Each line starts at 100 on 1 January and follows that year’s price to 31 December, so the chart shows how each year unfolded in percentage terms from the same starting point. The dashed average line is the geometric mean across completed years; it is dominated by the huge 2011, 2013 and 2017 years, so treat it as illustrative.
Two patterns repeat: Q4 has been the strongest quarter in most bull-cycle years, and years ending in 4-year-cycle bottoms (2014, 2018, 2022) trended down all year. The current year is drawn bold so you can see whether it tracks the average, the strong years or the weak ones. For month-by-month statistics see the Bitcoin monthly returns page.
October and November have the highest average returns; September and June the lowest. Averages are skewed by 2013 and 2017 — the monthly returns page shows medians and hit rates.
Some, driven mostly by the halving cycle rather than the calendar: years one and two after a halving are strong, year three weak. Calendar seasonality on its own is a weak signal.
It is rebased to 100 on 1 January like every other year and drawn as the bold line, so you can compare its path so far against previous years at the same day of year.
Coinfuty computes every series on this page from daily BTC close prices and public constants — the Bitcoin halving schedule, block subsidy and published regression coefficients. Values refresh nightly (00:20 UTC) and the current day is patched hourly. These are historical, backward-looking indicators; nothing here is investment advice.