Bitcoin power law chart (BTC power law), model and power law calculator: price regressed against time since genesis on log-log axes, with a support floor and resistance ceiling fitted to previous cycle extremes. Updated daily.
Time axis is linear; on a log-log chart the model becomes a straight line. Corridor lines pass through the marked cycle extremes.
| Date | Floor | Model | Ceiling | Model vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2027 | $69,190 | $154,503 | $306,258 | +87% |
| Apr 15, 2028next halving | $103,387 | $228,101 | $402,159 | +176% |
| Jan 1, 2030 | $169,636 | $368,745 | $562,686 | +347% |
| Jan 1, 2035 | $587,366 | $1,230,063 | $1,306,558 | +1390% |
log10(price) = 5.640 · log10(days since 2009-01-03) − 16.343
A power law means price grows as a fixed power of time. Fitting Bitcoin's daily close against days since 2009-01-03 on log-log axes gives the formula above (exponent ≈ 5.64, n = 5,897 days).
The exponent close to 5.6–5.8 is the well-known result of the power-law thesis: every 10× increase in Bitcoin's age has coincided with roughly a 10^5.7 increase in price. The ceiling and floor are separate power laws fitted through the cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021, 2024) and the cycle bottoms (2015, 2020, 2022, 2026), which is why the corridor narrows over time in log terms. Coinfuty fitted the model once on the full history and does not refit it nightly, so the lines do not move under your feet.
Price has spent most of its history inside the corridor. Approaching the ceiling (≥ 80% of it, the hub's peak threshold) marked the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops; touching the floor marked the 2015, 2020 and 2022 lows. Today price sits -43.1% versus the model line.
The model line is at $144,944 for Oct 19, 2026; Bitcoin closed at $82,541, -43.1% versus the model. The corridor runs from $64,781 to $292,881.
Physicist Giovanni Santostasi popularised the observation that Bitcoin's price follows a power law in time. Coinfuty fits its own regression on its own price data; the coefficients are close to, but not identical with, other published fits.
Extrapolating the fitted line gives $368,745 for 1 January 2030 with a corridor of $169,636–$562,686. That is a projection of a curve, not a forecast.
The rainbow uses a log regression on linear time and fixed multiplier bands; the power law uses log-log axes and a corridor fitted to actual extremes. The power law has drifted far less over the last two cycles.
Coinfuty computes every series on this page from daily BTC close prices and public constants — the Bitcoin halving schedule, block subsidy and published regression coefficients. Values refresh nightly (00:20 UTC) and the current day is patched hourly. These are historical, backward-looking indicators; nothing here is investment advice.